The two most populous states in the nation — California and Texas — now have laws on the books requiring school buses to be equipped with lap-shoulder seat belts for passengers. Texas joined California last week when its governor, Rick Perry, signed a bill requiring all new school buses bought after Sept. 1, 2010, to have three-point belt systems.

The bill was signed a little more than a month before the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) convenes its one-day seat belt summit in Washington, D.C. (on July 11). More importantly, the bill comes about six months after the school bus crash in Huntsville, Ala., that resulted in four deaths. That crash, in my opinion, will eventually be viewed as the event that ushered the industry into the era of seat belts.

It will be several years, possibly even decades, before all school buses in California and Texas are equipped with seat belts, but the domino effect has definitely begun. I believe we'll be seeing other states follow suit, maybe not immediately, but slowly but surely over the next five or 10 years. In addition, I believe NHTSA will eventually mandate the installation of seat belts as states begin to join California and Texas (as well as Florida, New York and New Jersey, all of which require lap belts or lap-shoulder belts).

Is this a good thing? Here's my confusing answer: Now, no; eventually, yes. It's not a good thing now because it will take time to adjust for the reduced capacity that three-point belt systems create. That means that some students will be de-capacitized (yes, I made this word up) and forced to find another, less safe travel mode to get to and from school.

In the long term, however, the school bus industry will adjust to the additional cost of school buses with seat belts (and the costs will come down as production volume rises) and will also adjust their routing and scheduling to accommodate those students who would otherwise be forced off the bus (decapacitized) due to reduced capacity. As a group, school bus people are extraordinarily resourceful; I'm confident they'll figure out how to avoid putting students off the bus.

The end result will be all school buses, large and small, equipped with lap-shoulder belts. This creates a passenger crash-protection system that I think could be called "compartmentalization-plus." The students will have all the benefits of compartmentalization, plus, they'll have a three-point belt system, should they decide to use it. And, let's face it, even if the use of seat belts is mandated by the state, many students, especially the older ones, will NOT wear the belts. But I believe that the ones who do will be better protected in a side-impact crash and rollover accident.

I can remember riding in cars that didn't have seat belts. And I can remember driving cars that had seat belts, but not wearing them. I'm glad my children will not be exposed to the same conditions. Thirty years from now, which sounds like a long time but really isn't, people will be surprised to learn that school buses didn't have seat belts.

Let me know what you think.

Steve