In July, the 2025 NSTA Annual Meeting & Convention (AMC) brought together school transportation leaders, policymakers, and industry stakeholders from across the country to address the pressing issues impacting private school bus contractors and school transportation. This year’s keynote speaker, Casie Daugherty, managing director at Prime Policy Group, captivated the audience with an in-depth presentation titled “Trump, Tariffs, and Tea Leaves.”

With nearly 15 years of experience guiding clients through the complexities of trade and tax policy, Daugherty brought a rare blend of deep technical knowledge and strategic insight. Currently, she leads Prime Policy Group’s tax and trade practice, where she navigates matters ranging from tariff disputes and customs investigations to tax reform and compliance. Her background includes work on Section 232 and 301 tariff actions, anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases, and high-profile forced labor investigations.

Daugherty began the session by outlining the legal framework that empowers the executive branch to implement tariffs. She traced the history from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 through the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934, the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, also known as IEEPA. In short, these laws provide broad and flexible authority for presidents to impose tariffs, often with minimal Congressional input. In recent years, presidential administrations have increasingly used these powers as an all-purpose policy lever, whether addressing national security, economic competition, or geopolitical disputes.

The heart of Daugherty’s presentation focused on the incoming wave of reciprocal tariffs, some of which took effect on August 1, 2025, but in a 7-to-4 ruling in late August, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said the president incorrectly used IEEPA to impose these charges on American trading partners. The import fees do, however, remain in effect while the court case continues. The U.S. Supreme Court indicated on September 9, 2025, that it will take up the case on a “fast track” basis, likely to occur in November. 

These tariffs are noted to establish a baseline rate of 10%, with country-specific adjustments that can be significantly higher or lower depending on the outcome of trade negotiations. She illustrated how the rates for various trading partners are changing. Some nations, such as Brazil, will see sharp increases, jumping from 10% to 50%, while others, such as Vietnam, will see steep decreases, from 46% to 20%. Several countries, including Canada and the European Union, will face moderate increases, whereas China will experience one of the largest drops, from 34% to just 10%.

During her presentation, Daugherty posed several open questions that will determine the policy’s real-world impact. She asked whether all countries could face the August 1 deadline, or if those engaged in active negotiations will receive extensions. As we now know, these intense negotiations remain fluid. 

Daugherty also raised the issue of whether exemptions under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will remain in place, and if sector-specific carveouts under Section 232 investigations will be maintained. This was particularly in the interest of NSTA and its members, as bus manufacturing, parts supply, and specialty materials may experience shifts. The outcome could have significant positive or negative ripple effects on costs, timelines, and sourcing strategies.

Daugherty then examined the scope of Section 232 investigations, which assess whether imports threaten national security. These investigations already cover steel and aluminum, materials essential in bus frames and components. Now, they extend to industries including automobiles and auto parts, semiconductors and related manufacturing equipment, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, commercial aircraft and jet engines, and unmanned aircraft systems. For school transportation stakeholders, this means closely monitoring investigations that may touch upstream suppliers or specialized technologies.

The recurring theme throughout Daugherty’s keynote was caution. She noted that retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners remain a possibility, and that it is unclear whether restraint or swift retaliation can prove more advantageous for those countries. Stakeholders, she advised, should take an active role in advocacy, particularly for products under Section 232 and 301. Finally, she encouraged industry leaders not to wait for final tariff announcements before engaging in the policy process. 

While tariff policy may seem far removed from the yellow bus world, Daugherty made the connections real to NSTA members. Tariffs can affect vehicle manufacturing costs, especially if steel, aluminum, and auto parts tariffs remain elevated. They can also disrupt supply chain stability, affecting how quickly parts can be sourced or replaced. In addition, tariffs on semiconductors or specialized equipment can slow the adoption of new safety and efficiency technologies in school bus fleets. In an era where private school bus contractors already face challenges in driver recruitment,fleet modernization, and funding, these added economic pressures make strategic planning even more critical. Daugherty wrapped up her presentation by urging NSTA members to stay informed, stay connected, and stay vocal as policy changes in Washington, D.C. often unfold rapidly.

This keynote was a reminder that while tariff policy may be crafted in distant political and economic circles, its effects can shape budgets, purchasing decisions, and ultimately, the services delivered to students. As her session concluded, attendees left with a deeper understanding of how trade policy is evolving and how they can prepare their operations for the months ahead. Daugherty’s knowledge offers the industry a clearer view of the trends and challenges shaping trade policy in 2025.

As of July, I am honored to assume the role of president of the National School Transportation Association (NSTA). I welcome the opportunity to engage with colleagues and stakeholders who share a commitment to advancing safe, reliable, and efficient student transportation. Those wishing to learn more about NSTA’s initiatives and the issues shaping the future of school transportation may contact me at president@yellowbuses.org. 

Together, we can address the challenges ahead and work to ensure a stronger, safer future for student transportation. With NSTA, you never travel alone.