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C2FAN
Senior Member

United States
96 Posts

Posted - 06/19/2012 :  1:49:30 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Looks like the sharks are circling....I can't help but wonder what the future holds for IC bus, it would be no secret that whoever buys them would be interesting primarily in their truck manufacturing.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9VBO0FG0.htm

michael
Senior Member

USA
109 Posts

Posted - 06/26/2012 :  09:01:52 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Stunning that this news is getting such little (zero) discussion on this forum. It's the hottest news on the truck forums - see below:

Could This Be The End of Navistar?
June 22, 2012 4:39 PM EDT | By Tim Fenster

inShare.0Share0printemail0 Comments
Truck engine maker Navistar might be near the point of bankruptcy. (Photo: REUTERS)

Following a "poison pill" strategy to thwart activist investors, Fitch Ratings lowered its ratings of Navistar International Corp. and put it on watch for future downgrades, BloombergBusinessweek reports. Fitch said recent changes introduce some uncertainty about the company's long-term operating and financial policies.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported rumors that Volkswagon and Fiat had expressed interest in purchasing the company

Gimme Credit analyst Vicki Bryan sees a possible end for Navistar.

"Given Navistar's spectacularly bad press over the past few weeks ... we can envision a scenario similar to the coup d'état at Texas Industries in 2009," Byran said, "when its largest shareholders launched a public grass root appeal to all shareholders to support their new board candidates as well as sweeping changes to improve management strategy and company disclosures."

Bryan also pointed out that even if Navistar can survive its troubles with activist investors, the company's fate still hinges on its ability to produce a new type of truck engine that meets EPA emissions guidelines.

Navistar hasn't yet addressed the possibility of bankruptcy, however, one spokeswoman told CNBC, "it's important to the future of the company to either get a final ruling in place by the courts (presumably in its favor)" or EPA certification "in a timely manner."
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/01/2012 :  1:07:00 PM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Well the story from the IC people has been that this only impacts their "big-bore" engines so it's a non-issue for the school bus side.

The reality is they simply have more credits to apply to the medium-duty families. According to their last Quarterly conference call they have enough to get through 2013.

However, I don't see how they can continue to make this disctinction in the long run. At this point in time no Navistar engine Medium or Heavy meets the 0.2 NOx level with EGR only. They only have 1 engine submitted (the Maxxforce 13)to the EPA and have publicly stated they have no real submission schedule for any others.

IIRC, the medium-duty platform would be the harder one on which to achieve compliance. Cummins always planned to use SCR for their medium engines and had planned on EGR on the heavy side until they switched strategies in October, 2008. Theoretically Navistar will have an even greater issue on the medium side because it's a harder puzzle to solve.

So while it is true they have a longer time before the issue on the medium platforms gets to critical mass. The issue still exists and they don't appear to have any plan B.....though the new rumor on the street is that they will be offering Cummins on the heavy side in 2013.

Edited by - JRob on 07/01/2012 1:07:56 PM
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08 Thomas EF
Top Member

526 Posts

Posted - 07/02/2012 :  05:41:28 AM  Show Profile  Visit 08 Thomas EF's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I just hope that Cummins doesn't get sloppy with their upcoming designs as they gain more market share....
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  03:49:28 AM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
Ladies & Gentlemen......Plan B

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304708604577503292076655510.html
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Thomasbus24
Administrator

USA
3318 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  04:03:08 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Sound like DEF for everybody!!!! YAY!!!!

I wonder how they are going to spin this change of heart when it comes to advertising.
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RichBusman
Advanced Member

451 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  04:38:04 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Will be interesting to see if this will be strictly heavy duty or everything including medium duty and light duty TerraStar.


Edited by - RichBusman on 07/03/2012 04:38:41 AM
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  05:10:03 AM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I would guess that they do heavy initially, ride the credit train on medium until it runs out and then bring it to medium.

As noted above they don't have anything close to being certified at 0.2 NOx no matter the engine type so there is no reason not to go across the board.

The big question will be do they pay a price in the market for being disingenuous up to this point regarding SCR with the result of having to backtrack?
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08 Thomas EF
Top Member

526 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  07:37:01 AM  Show Profile  Visit 08 Thomas EF's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I'm wondering who's been making the decisions within the company about trying to use EGR than deciding to go SCR. Did the engineers think they had a great idea that would be successful and later realized that they simply couldn't make it happen, was it the executives wanting the company to do something "outside the box" and/or trying to save money that have finally realized that EGR won't work...? The general boneheadedness of dissing SCR, the lawsuits against it, etc. and now switching make me think it's the executives.

Edited by - 08 Thomas EF on 07/03/2012 07:37:39 AM
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michael
Senior Member

USA
109 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  11:27:00 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
http://fleetowner.com/equipment/amid-reports-switch-scr-navistar-set-announce-operational-changes

From Fleet Owner magazine. Lots of crow to be eaten. And, rumor has it that the CEO is resigning this Friday as well.
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C2FAN
Senior Member

United States
96 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  11:34:51 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by michael

http://fleetowner.com/equipment/amid-reports-switch-scr-navistar-set-announce-operational-changes

From Fleet Owner magazine. Lots of crow to be eaten. And, rumor has it that the CEO is resigning this Friday as well.



WOW! I wonder what the guys at my local IC dealership are going to do with their anti-SCR pins they've been wearing for the last two years.....

Also, I wonder what they will tell the people like me who they told that Diesel Exhaust Fluid was toxic?

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RichBusman
Advanced Member

451 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  1:41:34 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If they do use urea, it might end up being the non-liquid kind that's been hinted at. Who knows.

There will be crow to be eaten, that's for sure. Whether or not it will change people's buying habits is the other question. They are the market leader by far in many areas.
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  3:33:33 PM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
From what I understand, the Amminex SCR system isn't ready for commercial use yet. They are still in development. Unless there is something VERY well hidden they will be turning to a similar set-up to what is already in use.
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IC4013
New Member

4 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  5:21:01 PM  Show Profile  Visit IC4013's Homepage  Reply with Quote
So will this apply to IC buses now? It seem to be alot of chancing going on with Navistar, I know we got some new IC buses that came in with the word Navistar on the bumper and below IC shelid on the roof.
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78fordwayne
Top Member

USA
2868 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  5:47:20 PM  Show Profile  Visit 78fordwayne's Homepage  Send 78fordwayne an AOL message  Send 78fordwayne a Yahoo! Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by IC4013

So will this apply to IC buses now? It seem to be alot of chancing going on with Navistar, I know we got some new IC buses that came in with the word Navistar on the bumper and below IC shelid on the roof.


I think the NAVISTAR logo on the bumper looks good. At least now "ordinary" people will know who the bus is built by.

Robert B.

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Kodie
Top Member

United States
1994 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  5:56:22 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Anybody have pictures of the new logo arrangement? I'm curious to see it.
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IC4013
New Member

4 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2012 :  6:58:54 PM  Show Profile  Visit IC4013's Homepage  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 78fordwayne

quote:
Originally posted by IC4013

So will this apply to IC buses now? It seem to be alot of chancing going on with Navistar, I know we got some new IC buses that came in with the word Navistar on the bumper and below IC shelid on the roof.


I think the NAVISTAR logo on the bumper looks good. At least now "ordinary" people will know who the bus is built by.



It was little odd at first, I wish Navistar had use yellow letters instead of white letter. In all I like it after getting use to looking at it. The buses look to be built more soild, again just my two cents.

Guess I cant post it lol

Edited by - IC4013 on 07/03/2012 7:56:47 PM
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78fordwayne
Top Member

USA
2868 Posts

Posted - 07/04/2012 :  07:18:47 AM  Show Profile  Visit 78fordwayne's Homepage  Send 78fordwayne an AOL message  Send 78fordwayne a Yahoo! Message  Reply with Quote
http://truckinginfo.com/news/news-detail.asp?news_id=77418&news_category_id=6

This article does say the current medium duty engines are good through 2013.

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IC4013
New Member

4 Posts

Posted - 07/04/2012 :  08:26:14 AM  Show Profile  Visit IC4013's Homepage  Reply with Quote
With Navistar switching over to SCR, there going to be some changing to the chassis design. Im sure the bus chassis will have to mounted the fuel cage in the rear in order to built in the SCR tank in the front. So now will this open up the door for having a cumming enigne in a IC bus? Wow waiting to see how this will all play out!
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/04/2012 :  12:16:28 PM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
@IC4013.

I would doubt that they go to Cummins on the bus since their priority will be their proprietary engines and their business model is built around providing their own power on the medium duty side.

On the heavy-duty side they used to be about 80% Cummins since they did not offer their own engines in the 11 - 15 liter range for many years. So Cummins is a natural fit there.

You hit on an interesting note regarding the fuel tank. There are a number of packaging issues that they will have to address on the bus side. The saddle tank is something they've tried to hammer vs. a BTR over the years.

When you consider they have all of the platforms to do and such a short time (1.5 years if the credits hold out on the medium duty side), you know they will be burning the midnight oil. Unless they've had this in their back pocket all along. I kind of doubt if this was the play since they waited an awful long time and lost quite a bit of shareholder value before making the change. Also, may have cost Ustian and Cederoth their jobs.

Edited by - JRob on 07/04/2012 12:17:29 PM
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/06/2012 :  07:56:51 AM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
So it's official this morning. SCR going by the name of ICT+. They didn't address medium-duty and didn't take any questions re: timing beyond early 2013 on the heavy-duty side. More info will be out over the next few days I'm sure.
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C2FAN
Senior Member

United States
96 Posts

Posted - 07/06/2012 :  10:30:27 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Navistar already has the SCR technology mated to their engines in south America so this won't be that big of an engineering struggle for them. More of an embarrassment than anything else. I guess what bothers me the most is that they are already trying to spin it like they have developed something new with this ICT+ branding. I listened to their investor webinar this morning and they were totally coming off like their version of SCR is going to be so much better than everyone else because they are combining Advanced EGR with a "liquid after treatment" method. Its just typical IC BS just like we've been hearing over the last couple of years.
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/06/2012 :  3:45:45 PM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
They took a beating today in the market because they didn't provide enough cost info/details for the analysts liking. Think how bad it would have been if they had come out and simply said, "We give up and are just going to do what everyone else is doing." They HAVE to make it sound like it's new and shiny.
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IC4013
New Member

4 Posts

Posted - 07/06/2012 :  9:42:22 PM  Show Profile  Visit IC4013's Homepage  Reply with Quote
From my understanding ICT+ wont be appyly to the buses, someone correct me if Im wrong? Dont see why they wont do the same with the medium chassis. I do think soon we going to see the chancing on the bus side before you know it IC name will be fully Navistar.......
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JRob
Senior Member

182 Posts

Posted - 07/07/2012 :  06:08:37 AM  Show Profile  Visit JRob's Homepage  Reply with Quote
It's not an "if" its a "when" with regards to buses. They didn't discuss anything more than the hevy-duty family (i.e. 11L, 13L, & 15L). These are at the most critical point because they are out of credits on that family of engines.

The medium-duty family has credits to take them further into 2013 so there is some time there. The medium-duty portfolio and the 11L present the biggest challenges in development. These sizes are spread over the vocational and school bus duties presenting significant system packaging issues due to the variety of configurations required. Navistar has been very aggressive in other markets over the past few years in an effort to replace the lost Ford Super-Duty engine volume. They have a variety of engine supply arrangements with vocational vehicle manufacturers (i.e. RV, Work Trucks, Fire Trucks) that will require accomodation.

Navistar business is heavily based on the medium-duty/severe-service side so even though the analysts and news stories have highlighted Class 8 over-the-road issues of the Maxx 13 & 15, the real vulnerability for them, in my view, is vocational. 2 out of every 3 vehicles Navistar builds is dedicated to the Bus, Medium-Duty Truck, or Severe-Service vocation. Those classes are heavily tilted to the Maxx7, DT, and Maxx 9 - 11 engines.
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08 Thomas EF
Top Member

526 Posts

Posted - 07/08/2012 :  07:29:02 AM  Show Profile  Visit 08 Thomas EF's Homepage  Reply with Quote
From the sounds of it they're basically adding the urea system to what they already have. What's that mean for fleets? More of the same problems they've been having plus a urea system to maintain?
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RichBusman
Advanced Member

451 Posts

Posted - 07/09/2012 :  2:28:33 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
http://www.commercialmotor.com/the-world-trucks-blog/navistar-s-spiral-of-despair-some-background

This article is a really good look into the years leading up to where we are now. Very good read.
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78fordwayne
Top Member

USA
2868 Posts

Posted - 07/09/2012 :  4:53:40 PM  Show Profile  Visit 78fordwayne's Homepage  Send 78fordwayne an AOL message  Send 78fordwayne a Yahoo! Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kodie

Anybody have pictures of the new logo arrangement? I'm curious to see it.





Robert B.

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RichBusman
Advanced Member

451 Posts

Posted - 07/09/2012 :  8:29:37 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I don't really understand the reason to switch the bumper to Navistar, looks hideous. Should have put a black Navistar logo on the back yellow tag panel instead.
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Tatum
Top Member

United States
606 Posts

Posted - 07/09/2012 :  9:33:21 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
What are the two boxes on each side of the Navistar logo?

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08 Thomas EF
Top Member

526 Posts

Posted - 07/10/2012 :  04:52:19 AM  Show Profile  Visit 08 Thomas EF's Homepage  Reply with Quote
^ I'm guessing there are (or would be) tow hooks behind them.

This whole change to the logos seems to obliterate the "IC Bus" name from the outside. It just screams "Navistar International." I think the company has better things to worry about than this....
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JustinB
Advanced Member

United States
490 Posts

Posted - 07/10/2012 :  2:19:48 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 08 Thomas EF

^ I'm guessing there are (or would be) tow hooks behind them.

This whole change to the logos seems to obliterate the "IC Bus" name from the outside. It just screams "Navistar International." I think the company has better things to worry about than this....

The window dressing in question is the marketing equivelent of shouting "SQUIRRELL!!". Let's see how effective the Ritalin is in the various class 4-8 markets.

I may not know the answer but I can usually find who does.
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Alex403
Active Member

USA
10 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2013 :  2:45:19 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have a few buses at my district like this. The way the logo looks with the yellow roof doesn't look good. This is logo is better though, I like it!

IC Bus.. The company that makes Thomas Built fan hide in shame. :)
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08BBVision
Senior Member

USA
118 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2013 :  3:58:13 PM  Show Profile  Visit 08BBVision's Homepage  Reply with Quote
I couldn't see how Navistar is doing so bad...there are a lot of truck fleets around the country who buy only International trucks, and all of the IC buses out there...I see WAY more IC than any other manufacturer.


My School Bus Photostream
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tyler_officer/
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Tatum
Top Member

United States
606 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2013 :  8:45:01 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
IC is doing terribly right now..I suspect they will announce bankruptcy soon; they're losing tons upon tons of money.

I don't know how they're going to survive now that they're getting sued for every bus they've produced recently with incorrect emissions.
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C.HARDY
Advanced Member

350 Posts

Posted - 01/07/2013 :  6:28:06 PM  Show Profile  Click to see C.HARDY's MSN Messenger address  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 08BBVision

I couldn't see how Navistar is doing so bad...there are a lot of truck fleets around the country who buy only International trucks, and all of the IC buses out there...I see WAY more IC than any other manufacturer.

It makes you think they must build the buses with the left over parts or something.

"Hardybusman"
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