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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
 Posted - 12/21/2009 : 11:56:16 AM
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As most of you have probably figured out by now I love to debate. Over in the Compressed Gas thread we got to talking about the state of the big three manufacturers and how healthy they are or are not. As well as if there is a possibility that there might be a fourth company comming to the full size market.
I thought it would be better if we broke it out of the confines of the other thread and let the compressed gas guys have their thread back.
So what is your opinion? Feel free to take a look at the other thread and continue the discussion here.
http://www.schoolbusfleet.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20492&whichpage=2 |
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ohiobusman
Active Member
10 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 12:35:28 PM
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I think there is room for other manufacturers. One of the things it brings is new ideas in thinking, design, materials, etc. I realize the Starcraft body uses FRP for the roof and rear end and aluminum on the side panels, but I believe those materials will be used more as the industry moves forward. Weight and fuel economy are issues, what the difference between a real thin gauge steel or a heavier gauge aluminum. In terms of FRP, most of the body companies are using fiberglass on the roof caps and have for years. In any case the skin does not provide the strength of the school bus body, it is the cage underneath the skin. If the cage is well built there is no reason a bus cannot last with FRP and aluminum. More players are needed so that the market does not get stagnant.
At one time this industry supported 6-8 major OEM's with not much more annual production than currently being produced. Starcraft brings the total to 4 type C, and I know of one more coming in 2010 that will hit the market. Well respected chassis and well respected people building the body.
2010 is going to be an interesting year in the school bus business. |
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bcressey
Senior Member
USA
114 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 12:50:37 PM
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| I'd agree with this. International has a lot staked on EGR that no one else does. If this backfires, it could leave them hanging. I do not see Hino taking on BB. I have heard they will not have a Type C until 2014. I don't see them purchasing the brand to not sell a bus for four years, it would be cheaper to develop their own. If BB does not get purchased, I don't see them continuing past this year. |
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RichBusman
Advanced Member
453 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 1:39:41 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by ohiobusman
I think there is room for other manufacturers. One of the things it brings is new ideas in thinking, design, materials, etc. I realize the Starcraft body uses FRP for the roof and rear end and aluminum on the side panels, but I believe those materials will be used more as the industry moves forward. Weight and fuel economy are issues, what the difference between a real thin gauge steel or a heavier gauge aluminum. In terms of FRP, most of the body companies are using fiberglass on the roof caps and have for years. In any case the skin does not provide the strength of the school bus body, it is the cage underneath the skin. If the cage is well built there is no reason a bus cannot last with FRP and aluminum. More players are needed so that the market does not get stagnant.
At one time this industry supported 6-8 major OEM's with not much more annual production than currently being produced. Starcraft brings the total to 4 type C, and I know of one more coming in 2010 that will hit the market. Well respected chassis and well respected people building the body.
2010 is going to be an interesting year in the school bus business.
The fifth manufacturer will be the one that I think may actually change the industry drastically. Super heavy duty bus, built to last way longer than anything else on the market. And better alternative materials than what is being explored elsewhere.
On the Starcraft, it is very debatable on whether or not aluminum is the way to go. I've seen way too many Girardins disintegrate well before their steel counterparts. Biggest issue is flooring and separation of dissimilar metals.
With the magnesium chloride being sprayed down on the roads now in many areas, it is very difficult to stop corrosion. This stuff is far worse than standard road salt over the long run, and a good quality galvanized steel with good quality paint will last longer than an aluminum panel. |
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Wolf0r
Top Member
USA
2181 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 1:49:50 PM
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| I don't recommend Starcraft or StarTrans. Nursing homes around here have them, total crap IMO. Call the 800# before working on, then maybe lucky if you get someone knowledgable. I do like that v10 in the fords though makes that lightweight bubble bus haul A$$. I don't see these in my future anyway. |
“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”
Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 2:13:28 PM
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I think you guys are misreading the market. I think schools and contractors alike are going to go for quality. That quality is there in only one manufacturer at this time and it is BB.
Lets face it, our money is not going to be worth nearly as much after we go through TARP II, III, IV, etc. So businesses are going to be looking for bang for their buck. That mean using something longer weather that is a car, truck, computer, appliance, or a bus. The company that figures that out is going to win and win big.
I don't have a dog in this hunt. I don't own stock in BB, I don't have realatives working for them, and I don't work for them either. I just think they still put out a quality product and are ahead of the others already. All management has to do is recognize when to make the right turns ahead. If they make a few blunders they'll be out. But I think the same is true for the other two, make a few mistakes and your out. |
Bryan |
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bus724
Top Member
USA
1609 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 3:01:36 PM
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| I stand by my post in the other thread. School districts that purchase their own buses want quality. The big contractors want high volume, cheap buses with minimal resale/salvage value after 10 years. Smaller contractors care about quality, and providing the best service, but at the same time, they have to compete with the big guys. |
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bcressey
Senior Member
USA
114 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 6:07:54 PM
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| I'll agree with the debate comment, I like it and I think it is healthy. It is very interesting to see the different viewpoints on this. We'll see who is right, maybe some, maybe all, maybe none. Who would have thought the gov't would have bought GM, Chrysler was sold to Fiat and CAT wouldn't be on-highway anymore a couple years ago. Man, 2010 is going to be interesting. |
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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
Posted - 12/21/2009 : 8:34:26 PM
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| How right you are bcressey, how right you are!! |
Bryan |
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JRob
Advanced Member
207 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 06:58:50 AM
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Relative strength of the manufacturers.....hmmm...that's a tough one.
I don't know that you can rate them strong to weak in an exercise such as this. I think it's better to try to evaluate each strength and weakness. So here it goes:
IC
Strength: Vertically integrated and its parent company has a strong, historical presence in the medium-duty business. The Navistar dealer organization is focused on the medium-duty market better than just about everyone. Products are successful but they are getting dated and they live on their enigne reputation.
Weakness: They are the weakest long-term player in the heavy-duty business. They have just now started to build heavy engines and have taken a "lone-wolf" approach to EPA2010. That doesn't mean they're wrong but it raises the risk factor if they are. As stated above, their ace has always been engine rep. If they stumble on that, they may take a big hit.
Thomas
Strength: Also vertically integrated with the exception of engine supply. This gives them flexibility (though there is some weakness to this, see below). They have been the most innovative, risk-taking manufacturer. This pays dividends in the long run even though they may make some missteps.
Weakness: Their parent is not as focused on the medium-duty world as its competitor. Not having an in-house engine means they must devote considerable resources developing their product around something they don't control.
Blue Bird
Strength: Good brand history and reputation. They have survived on this through the past few years. Their products are acceptable and their dealer organization is traditionally a strong one.....
Weakness: However, they have lost some dealers and that strength is diminished. Cerberus has had a dismal 2009. They've been financially strapped. Though it is important to note that they have not unloaded or shutdown BB despite these difficulties. I think that you have to note this as an indication that the tales of BB's demise may be premature. In the end, the fact they are not aligned with a large scale vehicle manufacturer has to be a weakness in light of the others in the marketplace.
The thing that is very important is what each of the manufacturers views their place to be. Many here talk marketshare but that is not the only thing that drives business decisions. Look at the auto industry. Honda does not try to be the largest car manufacturer yet they are very successfull. The school bus business has always been about volume and marketshare for the most part (i.e. Gillig and Crown are notable exceptions) but that doesn't always have to be the case. IC is driven by marketshare. They market to it. A smaller, more profitable profile may be the way to go.
The question is will the school bus customer base permit such a strategy to succeed. School Buses by and large are a great value. They provide 10 - 15 years of service at a price point that approaches a high end SUV. Think about that. You can transport ~70 kids safely to and from school for a per mile cost that is dramatically below what you could using the family Suburban. N. American school buses are the most successful public transportation system in the US. Yet they are undervalued by schools and the individuals that benefit from their services. Ultimately that is the basis for the strength and weakness of the industry. If there is a significant segment that will buy for value and with a long-term mindset, a non-marketshare viewpoint can succeed. If the market is only driven by price, it can't. It is not as simple as district owned vs. contractor owned either. There are segments of each that buy for price and value.
So there is something to think about. Not a lot of answers, really, but certainly food for thought. |
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ohiobusman
Active Member
10 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 07:11:14 AM
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| Blue Bird is the only quality product? You have got to be kidding. There whole purchasing philosophy is "what is the cheapest?" That does not lend itself to a quality bus. I have been through all of the manufacturing plants of the big 3, and from this persons opinion Thomas is building the best bus because of the ability to have a repetitive process in their production. The other thing is making sure that the vendors they choose are quality vendors, not just the one one that provide the cheapest part price. |
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RichBusman
Advanced Member
453 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 07:24:21 AM
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All three large bus manufacturers have issues, another huge factor in purchasing decision needs to be the dealer support. Here in NY, different parts of the state have varied levels of service.
I can tell you from hearing the horror stories right from dealers, that Blue Bird has the absolute worst parts support out of the big three. They are also extremely difficult to deal with on warranty support when dealers go after them. This isn't stuff I made up, it's straight from the dealers mouths.
From a reliability standpoint, it seems that every couple of years it changes. I think all three are pretty reliable overall, so again it comes down to dealer and parts support. |
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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 08:05:35 AM
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quote:
I can tell you from hearing the horror stories right from dealers, that Blue Bird has the absolute worst parts support out of the big three. They are also extremely difficult to deal with on warranty support when dealers go after them. This isn't stuff I made up, it's straight from the dealers mouths.
I have to admitt I am a little nieve about this. My dealer does not run down the brand they sell. I have not been able to detect any parts problems from my dealer. My warrenty is never denied so I guess as far as I'm concerned this is not a problem either.
I think in the school bus business it all boils down to giving your customer what they need. How many Ford, Chrysler, GM, Toyota, Honda, etc. dealers do you see giving repair advise over the phone to their customers. Yet that is what you see in this sector. I think it all depends on your individual dealers.
Let me tell you a little story about what is happening to me. I try to buy BB because of my dealer. How do I know that is the reason? Because they give me the best response when I have any troubles. We own 2 Thomas and 2 ICs and the rest are BB. They are all good busses. In fact they have given me little trouble beyond the VT365 in the ICs but that is another story.
The reason I went with IC, on those two, was because we have a strong and old International dealer 30 minutes from us. Boy was I mistaken! Eveyone around here that runs a medium or heavy truck does business there. But I can not get any service from them. When I call them they say bring it in. I don't want to bring it in I want your support in determining what the problem is then I will either fix it myself or bring it to you!
My selling IC dealer is moderatly acomodating. I have a real hard time getting to talk to anyone who knows anything. When I do talk to them they are nice.
As for Thomas the reason we bought them was because there is a service location near the International dealer who was supose to be able to take care of me. Wrong! So I have been going back to the selling dealer. Again they are moderatly acomodating and very nice. They are too very hard to talk to anyone who knows anything.
Now BB, I have dealt with this dealer for 16 years and 90% of the time I can talk to one of the two people they have on staff (first call) who do nothing but field questions. There was just one but the job got too big and they brought a tech. off the line in to help. I thought the original guy could not be matched. Boy was I wrong! I think these guys share a brain. (I mean that in a good way) It doesn't matter which one you get they can answer your questions. Neither one has told me I'll call you back with an answer. They have worked through it with me. One time one of the two took the phone out to the shop and got on a bus that was exactly like mine and talked me through a problem. It was like he was right there beside me looking at the same thing I was!
So I guess I talk too much but the bottom line is: I think BB is a great company. I guess the reason is because of my dealer! Who knew? |
Bryan |
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ohiobusman
Active Member
10 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 11:44:12 AM
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It sounds like your dealer is top notch, not Blue Bird. They had to add a person to the phone because of the phone volume, enough said. In terms of the Thomas and IC, their makor problem is that the Heavy truck people are scared of anything yellow, it is out of their wheelhouse and they usually want nothing to do with a school bus. This started when the heavy truck people bought the body company and set up there dealers as school bus dealers. Some places it works, others it doesn't
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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 12:09:17 PM
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quote:
It sounds like your dealer is top notch, not Blue Bird. They had to add a person to the phone because of the phone volume, enough said.
Actually to set the record straight they added two states! They have stores in the other states but all the tech phone calls come in to these two guys |
Bryan |
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Wolf0r
Top Member
USA
2181 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 12:12:25 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by ohiobusman
It sounds like your dealer is top notch, not Blue Bird. They had to add a person to the phone because of the phone volume, enough said. In terms of the Thomas and IC, their makor problem is that the Heavy truck people are scared of anything yellow, it is out of their wheelhouse and they usually want nothing to do with a school bus. This started when the heavy truck people bought the body company and set up there dealers as school bus dealers. Some places it works, others it doesn't
You have that right. I would open my own shop but it wouldn't pay to just cater to school busses. Also not enough quality aftermarket parts are available. The dealers kill ya with the "non member" pricing. |
“The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”
Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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JustinB
Advanced Member
United States
490 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 12:21:33 PM
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| A good relationship with you dealer is the most important link in a operator's supply chain. A dealer should do an excellent job of making your life easier & resolve any issues resolved. The consitancy of the manufacturer makes things more seemless for the dealer. Not that that happens....um.....consistantly. |
I may not know the answer but I can usually find who does. |
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bus724
Top Member
USA
1609 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 2:26:42 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by JRob
The question is will the school bus customer base permit such a strategy to succeed. School Buses by and large are a great value. They provide 10 - 15 years of service at a price point that approaches a high end SUV. Think about that. You can transport ~70 kids safely to and from school for a per mile cost that is dramatically below what you could using the family Suburban. N. American school buses are the most successful public transportation system in the US. Yet they are undervalued by schools and the individuals that benefit from their services. Ultimately that is the basis for the strength and weakness of the industry. If there is a significant segment that will buy for value and with a long-term mindset, a non-marketshare viewpoint can succeed. If the market is only driven by price, it can't. It is not as simple as district owned vs. contractor owned either. There are segments of each that buy for price and value.
I apologize, my condensed post made an unfair generalization. I know there are plenty of exceptions. I've seen large contractors that buy for quality and school districts that go for cheap. What's killing the industry is the big contractors like First Student, Durham, STA, etc. I only know second-hand info on Durham and STA, but I drive for FS and I didn't think it was possible to be this cheap.
There are a few decent-sized privately-owned contractors (several hundred buses each) in this state that try to deliver value, but they have to keep their costs as low as possible to compete with the big guys. With most contracts specifying a 5-year age limit for route buses, very few buyers care about running a bus any longer than that, and go for low price and dealer support. In this state, the largest and closest dealer sells IC. |
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JRob
Advanced Member
207 Posts |
Posted - 12/22/2009 : 2:46:37 PM
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No apology necessary. I wasn't being critical of you. I think from a general perspective what you say has some truth to it. I just wanted to point out that reasons for buying decisions, like most things, tend to be complex.
As stated above dealerships in the school bus business are a key factor. Because it is a relatively small industry there are fewer of them and where you may have several Navistar dealers to deal with in a state from the truck perspective, you may only have one guy to deal with on the school bus side. If he's not good, your experience with the manufacturer is likely to be bad. Also, don't interpret this as criticism of Nav either. I would guess you have a better chance of finding a Nav truck dealer with an interest in buses than with some of the other guys. It's one of their strengths. |
Edited by - JRob on 12/23/2009 07:04:04 AM |
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Fastback
Top Member
1500 Posts |
Posted - 12/23/2009 : 06:29:08 AM
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Oh the irony of this debate starting in the "Compressed Gas thread" 
My two cents;
All three major school bus manufacturers make a product of acceptable quality. Your familiarity with the product and how any issues you may have had have been handled, probably bears heavily on your preferance of one over the other.
I see International and Freightliner in it for the long haul, they both have; ability to spread engineering costs over a large number of vehicles, purchasing power, parts commonality with their medium truck line, either have an "inhouse" engine or access to one. The above benefits of having both the bus and truck product go both ways and provide a competitive edge for both manufacturers over a stand alone truck or bus company.
The end of production of the GM gas engine that Bluebird was making very profitable use of in their propane Vision illustrates their problem of being too dependant on factors they have too little control of. Now that Caterpillar and GM are no longer available to them as far as engines, they are at Cummins mercy.
I believe school districts who own their own fleets look for lowest purchase price as much as anyone. Its the politics of appearing like you are saving money that seems to be as or more important than actually saving any money.
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Why yes, the ORIGinal CHARGER is a Fastback |
Edited by - Fastback on 12/23/2009 10:48:23 AM |
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bwest
Administrator
United States
3820 Posts |
Posted - 12/23/2009 : 07:25:25 AM
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quote:
Its the politics of appearing like you are saving money that seems to be as or more important than actually saving any money.
I couldn't agree more! It seems as if the poloticians of every ilk think the rest of us are stupid! |
Bryan |
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State of bus manufacturers, What's your opinion
